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| July 24, 2009 |
There has never been a more critical time in Sudan's history than the present. “
“There has never been a more critical time in Sudan's history than the present. This summer, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir is celebrating two decades of dictatorship, having come to power in a coup in 1989. During Bashir's tenure, Africa's largest country has steadily declined into a model failed state. Home to the 21st century's first genocide, Sudan now boasts more displaced persons than any country on Earth.
“According to the current issue of Foreign Policy, it is among the three countries in the world most at risk of total collapse. Bashir himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder, torture, rape, and attacks against civilian populations. Even so, he looks set to win a national election next year. The following year, 2011, will bring a national referendum on the secession of Southern Sudan, which most experts expect to pass. This will split the country in two and render obsolete existing peace agreements, including the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that was intended to end the country's 12-year civil war and set out the parameters for peace.
All of this means the international community now faces an 18-month window in which to fix the whole mess. -
Enough is enough. If there is agreement on anything within the Darfur movement, it is that Obama must start living up to his promises of leading a bolder path forward in Sudan. Both Bashir's recent expulsion of humanitarian aid groups upon which millions depend for basic survival and the actions of his government to prevent the Mandate Darfur conference scheduled for last month, which was to bring together Sudanese civil society groups as part of the peace process, are unacceptable behaviors by any standard. Yet the United States and other countries remained nearly silent.
It's time to start speaking up. The White House must begin shaping a new international road map that provides a framework for sustainable peace in Sudan. The road map should be grounded in existing commitments, including the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the various existing Darfur commitments. It must also set measurable milestones and hold accountable Khartoum for its decisions and actions. The way forward must include Sudan's key geopolitical partners, principally China and Russia. Both can offer enticing carrots to Khartoum and apply immediate pressure in the face of noncooperation. Peace and stability in Sudan is in these states' interests, either for economic or political reasons. There is room for cooperation -- if the U.S. government signals that this discussion is a priority.
Exercising the political will necessary to craft a road map for lasting peace in Sudan will not come easily, nor will success. And that is precisely why the Darfur movement is needed now more than ever. Will it help apply immediate and meaningful pressure to those in power, at home and abroad, and ensure meaningful action to bring peace to the people of Sudan at this critical juncture? Ultimately, history may judge the Darfur movement not on the last five years, but on the next 18 months. With deadlines in Sudan looming -- and both the north and south rearming themselves for civil war -- it seems likely that the epitaph of the Darfur movement is far from written.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/20/save_darfur_must_save_itself?page=0%2C0