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| August 29, 2009 |
Aug 2009
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The departing commander of the U.N./African union peacekeeping force in Sudan's Darfur region this week said the area was no longer in a state of war. The comments sparked criticism from Darfur rebels, who warned they were planning new attacks, and from activists, who said Martin Luther Agwai had misrepresented the situation.
WHY IS DARFUR IMPORTANT?
U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes estimates up to 300,000 have died in the Darfur conflict and nearly 3 million people have been displaced. The conflict threatens peace between Sudan and neighboring Chad and has destabilised Sudan at a time when the fragile 2005 peace deal that ended its two-decade north-south civil war is under pressure again due to disputes over land and oil.
HAS THE DARFUR CONFLICT ENDED?
The levels of violence and attacks in Darfur have fallen since the mass killings of 2003 and 2004. But that does not mean the conflict is over.
Since January, the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) clashed with Sudan's army in and around the southern town of Muhajiriya in February; in settlements close to North Darfur's border with Chad in May; and most recently around Darfur's eastern boundary in early August. Sudan's government maintains its military presence; JEM has heavily armed forces, while other rebel groups, predominantly factions of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), continue to hold territory in Darfur.
The Darfur crisis still had a serious impact on people on the ground. The United Nations says 137,819 people were driven from their homes by fighting in Darfur in the first six months of this year, on top of the 2.7 million already in camps.
A level of inertia has set in on all sides of the conflict which has now dragged on without resolution for longer than World War Two.
WHAT COULD REIGNITE THE FIGHTING?
The worst threat could come from neighboring Chad. The Darfur conflict, originally launched by rebels pressing Khartoum for better representation and development, has become entangled in N'Djamena's convoluted political scene.
Most analysts accept that Sudan and Chad have been fighting a sporadic proxy war in recent years, with Chad's political elite supporting and funding their ethnic kinsmen among the leadership of JEM. Any overt war between Sudan and Chad would pour fresh cash and conflict over the border into Darfur.
There may well be a resurgence of violence after the rainy season, as both JEM and Khartoum try and maximise territorial gains ahead of currently stalled negotiations in Qatar.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?
Khartoum will wring out every ounce of propaganda it can out of Agwai's statements. State media have already been misquoting him saying peace has returned to Darfur and Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has given the Nigerian general a medal. Rebels may try and prove him wrong by launching a token attack.
The real test of Agwai's line will come in the months ahead. If JEM and Sudan's government end up signing some sort of ceasefire and peace agreement in Doha, then the general will be remembered for his prescience. If not, his comments will go down as another of Darfur's false dawns.